PEDRO MIRAS: “Although the energy transition is being promoted, the share of fossil fuels remains high”

The President of the World Petroleum Council assures that, despite global projections, the sector is growing in a rather stable manner and on a significantly clear growth path... so, there is oil for a long time.

ISSUE 139 | 2025

Vesna Marinkovic U.

1What is the current state of the oil market in 2025 in terms of production and demand?

Well, curiously, and despite what many people have been announcing for years about the supposed decline of the sector, the reality is that the numbers and statistics do not support that perception. We are at a moment where the oil sector, along with the gas sector and other energy sectors, is growing quite steadily.

In the last decade, growth has been significant, around 7.6% to 7.7%, despite the two complicated years that the COVID-19 pandemic brought. Not only was there a recovery, but the levels of oil and gas consumption exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Currently, both production and consumption are above 101 million barrels per day, with a clear growth path.

It is important to mention that the growth drivers have changed: they are no longer led by advanced economies, which are now relatively stagnant, especially in Europe, but by emerging countries whose growth is robust.

PERFIL

Pedro Miras completed his first term as president of the World Petroleum Council (WPC Energy) from 2021 to 2023, during the cycle that culminated with its 24th Congress in Calgary, Canada, in September 2023. He is now serving his second term as president from 2023 to 2026, which will lead to the 25th Congress in Saudi Arabia in 2026. With over 30 years of experience in the energy sector, he has worked in both public and private entities, specifically at REPSOL (institutional and international strategic planning, refining), the National Energy Commission (oil and biofuels regulation), the International Energy Agency SEQ/SOM (supply security), and CORES (oil and gas supply security). In addition to his involvement in the WPC network, he has been President of the Spanish Corporation of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (CORES), President of the Permanent Group on Emergency Issues (SEQ), President of the Market Group of the International Energy Agency, Head of Institutional Affairs and Organizations, Director of the President's Office at Repsol, and a Member of the Steering Committee and Board of Directors of Enerclub (Spanish Energy Club), among other significant roles.

2In this regard, you have mentioned some stagnation in traditional oil producers like the United States or Russia. How accurate is this statement? Are they stagnant, or have they maintained their production levels?

It is important to analyze this in detail. First, let’s review the OPEC share, traditionally a leader in the global market. From its historical peak of 37.5 million barrels per day in 2016-2018, it has dropped to a market share of 34%.

As for the United States, it has seen a decade of sustained growth in production, primarily driven by the development of shale oil and the opening of refineries. Currently, it produces about 12 million barrels per day, consolidating itself as the world's largest producer.

On the other hand, Russia, despite the sanctions arising from the conflict in Ukraine, has maintained stable production levels of around 11.2 million barrels per day. This shows that, in terms of volume, the sanctions have not had a significant impact.

Saudi Arabia, although it maintains production at about 10 million barrels per day, has an additional strategic value: its ability to quickly increase production by 2 or 2.5 million barrels per day, something unique in the market.

3How have the energy policies of major economies influenced oil demand?

Energy policies have a significant impact. For example, Europe, with stricter regulations on hydrocarbons, has maintained a stable consumption of around 11 million barrels per day, despite economic growth.

“Electrifying transportation in New York, Paris, or Madrid is not the same as in rural areas of Bolivia, Africa, or even parts of Europe...”

In contrast, developing countries have seen a significant increase. In 2013, they consumed around 45 million barrels per day, and now they exceed 50 million. This growth reflects that less restrictive policies and regulations in these regions drive higher demand.

4Despite the energy transition and climate concerns, the oil sector appears to be in good health...

Globally, the world consumes around 600 hexajoules of energy, more than 50% of which comes from hydrocarbons. Although the energy transition is promoted, the share of fossil fuels remains high, around 82%.

Additionally, approximately 800 million people lack access to electricity, and many developing regions rely on more accessible and affordable energy sources, such as hydrocarbons. This reinforces the demand for these fuels in economically growing areas.

5The electrification of transportation is key in the energy transition. How will it be implemented in different regions, especially in countries like Latin America?

It will not be uniform. Electrifying transportation in New York, Paris, or Madrid is not the same as in rural areas of Bolivia, Africa, or even parts of Europe. Moreover, the growing demand for electricity for new technologies, such as artificial intelligence and servers, could divert resources from transportation electrification to other areas. In the coming years, we will see that electrical demand will grow more to meet purely electrical needs, like data centers, than to electrify sectors such as transportation.

6What are the projections of the World Energy Council and other organizations about oil production and prices?

We do not make direct projections, but we observe the predictions of OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA). In the short term, both organizations agree on moderate growth, reaching 104-105 million barrels per day in 2025.

However, in the long term, they differ significantly. OPEC forecasts a continuous increase, reaching 112 million barrels per day by 2030, while the IEA predicts a decline. According to the IEA, if current policies are maintained, consumption in 2030 would be 101 million barrels per day; with stricter policies, it would fall to 92 million, and with net-zero emissions, it would drop to 77 million. In my opinion, it is more likely that we will follow a growth path, driven by robust demand in emerging countries.