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Vesna Marinkovic U.

EDICION 129

For James Johnson, a Forestry Engineer, consultant on environmental and agricultural issues, there has also been no development (on the necessary scale) of vegetable oil production from sources more resilient to the impacts of climate change, leaving the program highly dependent on soy.

1How sustainable is biodiesel production for replacing diesel and gasoline imports in Bolivia, considering that the main current crop is soy?

The biodiesel production program is important in the current situation of the country and represents a rational solution to the deficiency of fossil fuels. Bolivia has a competitive advantage for biodiesel production. However, biodiesel production based on soy is not considered a long-term solution. Raw material production should instead be based on the exploitation of other crops that are more efficient in vegetable oil production and less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

As we have seen this year in Bolivia, as well as in Argentina and Paraguay in 2023, soy is a crop susceptible to adverse weather conditions. With the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, reduced soy crops can be expected to occur more regularly.

2Does this involve expanding genetically modified soy crops or eliminating soy exports for biodiesel production in the country?

Replacing diesel imports with biodiesel production (which implies a reduction in exports) seems to be only a short-term measure. However, the country must develop a comprehensive plan to diversify sources of raw materials, moving away from the exclusive use of soybean oil. So far, a plan with these characteristics has not been outlined.

While expected transgenic events promise to make soy more resistant to short periods of drought, they do not offer a complete solution for prolonged droughts.

With the advancement of climate change, it becomes increasingly necessary to develop capabilities to create new technologies that can adapt to a variety of environmental conditions.

“If the two plants were to operate at 100% efficiency, they could supply the production of commercial B10 diesel (10% biodiesel and 90% conventional diesel) ...”

3Could the most basic alternative also result in the indiscriminate expansion of the agricultural frontier for this crop with the risk of increasing deforestation?

Expanding the soy cultivation area to rainier zones does not represent a viable solution in the current context.

Deforestation caused by the expansion of soy cultivation areas is contrary to the interests of Bolivian society and the world in general. Deforestation contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, which in turn cause global warming. Additionally, it has a significant impact on regional and local climates, altering rainfall patterns, wind intensity, resulting in soil moisture loss.

Therefore, deforestation affects the agricultural sector's ability to have favorable conditions for agricultural production.

Due to the physiographic conditions and institutional weakness of the country, the CAF classifies Bolivia as extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Soy is one of the crops most susceptible to these changes. Although there are measures that can be taken to reduce the vulnerability of this crop to the impact of climate change, few producers in Santa Cruz are implementing appropriate production practices.

In the short term, it is crucial to seek alternatives to soy cultivation as a source of raw material (vegetable oil) for the biodiesel program. Efforts should focus on developing alternative crops such as Macororó and Totaí, which are not only more productive in terms of oil volume per hectare but also less vulnerable to extreme weather events. For example, Totaí can produce up to 9 tons of oil per hectare, twenty times more than soy.

4How much of the biodiesel demand will be met from the plants recently inaugurated by the Government in Bolivia?

It is estimated that each plant under development in Santa Cruz and Senkata will have a production capacity of around 250 tons of biodiesel per day. Currently, Bolivia consumes around 5,000 tons of diesel per day. If the two plants were to operate at 100% efficiency, they could supply the production of commercial B10 diesel (10% biodiesel and 90% conventional diesel). However, Bolivia would still need to import the remaining diesel needed to blend with biodiesel.

The national biodiesel program aims to develop a third HVO (Hydroprocessed Vegetable Oil) production plant with a production capacity of 1,300 tons per day. However, construction of this plant has not yet begun. HVO allows for a greater percentage of imported diesel to be replaced.

5After what has been said, is the government alternative a sustainable bet or does it have any political bias?

The government proposal is correct in terms of the country's need to replace imported energy with domestically produced energy. However, two aspects that may affect the sustainability of the proposal are identified. Firstly, there has been no development on the necessary scale of vegetable oil production from sources more resilient to the impacts of climate change, leaving the program highly dependent on soy. Secondly, it is considered that the location and appropriate capacities of biodiesel extraction and refining plants have not been adequately evaluated to ensure their efficiency.

6A criticism closely linked to biodiesel production is that it could affect the food chain. Do you observe precautions regarding this in Bolivia?

The main product derived from soybeans is soybean meal, which constitutes about 80% of the grain's weight. This production will not be affected by biodiesel production and could actually increase its availability by increasing soybean production to meet the demand for oil for biodiesel production.

Biodiesel production from soybeans undoubtedly reduces the availability of oil for human consumption, whether in Bolivia or in another country. Therefore, the problem does not lie in biodiesel itself, but in the choice of raw material chosen for its production.

In the not so distant future, biotechnological advances will allow biodiesel to be produced from organic waste, reducing the dependence on vegetable oils for its production.

In the short term, it is crucial to seek alternatives to soybean cultivation as a source of raw material...”